A mid-year check-in, produced in partnership with Keeping Current Matters, shows a housing market that absorbed an early-year shock and remained resilient, with affordability improving, home price growth moderating, and a historic generational transfer of housing wealth beginning to take shape.

HomeServices of America recently published their 2026 Mid-Year Housing Outlook, a comprehensive analysis of the national real estate market, produced in partnership with Keeping Current Matters.

According to the report, the housing market successfully navigated a significant early-year shock while remaining fundamentally sound. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 5.99% in late February 2026, marking its first drop below 6% in more than three and a half years.

Although the Iran conflict disrupted the market’s early momentum by driving inflation and mortgage rates higher, conditions remained stronger than they were a year ago. As of June 2026, mortgage rates were still below the 6.86% average recorded one year earlier, and affordability improved year over year across all four U.S. regions.

The report also addresses two of today’s most persistent housing narratives: whether waiting for lower mortgage rates is the right strategy, and whether sellers pricing homes based on 2021-era expectations are limiting their success. In both cases, the data reinforces the value of informed decisions guided by experienced real estate professionals rather than expectations shaped by a very different market.

Looking ahead, the report highlights a long-term demographic shift that is expected to influence housing supply for decades. Baby Boomers, who own an estimated 40% of U.S. residential real estate and hold between $18 trillion and $20 trillion in housing wealth, are beginning a gradual generational transfer of that inventory.

“Our mid-year outlook confirms that the housing market’s challenges remain driven more by macroeconomic conditions than by housing fundamentals. Unlike the Great Recession, today’s market is characterized by strong homeowner equity, limited inventory, and historically low distressed sales. While elevated mortgage rates continue to suppress transaction volume, we believe these are cyclical headwinds rather than structural weaknesses, positioning the industry for a healthy return to normalized sales activity as economic conditions improve.”

Chris Kelly, President & CEO of HomeServices of America

Read the full report below or on the HomeServices of America blog.

Key national findings include:

• Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, June 2026 mortgage rates remained below the 6.86% average recorded one year earlier, and most economists expect the 30-year fixed rate to remain between 6.0% and 6.5% through year-end.
• Today’s mortgage rates, near 6.5%, are consistent with historical norms. Since 1971, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has been approximately 7.7%. The exceptionally low rates of 2020 and 2021 were a pandemic-era anomaly, not the long-term benchmark.
• Affordability improved year over year across all four U.S. geographic regions as wage growth continues to outpace home price appreciation in many markets.
• Home prices continue to moderate rather than decline. The U.S. median existing-home price reached $417,700 in April 2026, up 0.9% year over year and marking the 34th consecutive month of annual price appreciation.
• A quarterly Fannie Mae/Pulsenomics survey of more than 100 housing economists projects home prices will appreciate approximately 1.7% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, with the overwhelming majority of panelists forecasting no national price decline.
• Seller expectations continue to exceed current market realities. While 83% of sellers expect to receive at or above asking price, 34.2% reduced their list price in February 2026.
• Housing inventory continues to improve, giving buyers more options and additional time to make decisions. April housing starts increased 4.6% year over year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.465 million, although builder confidence remains cautious.
• Regional differences continue to shape the housing market. The Northeast remains the most supply-constrained and seller-favored region, the Midwest continues to be the nation’s affordability leader, the South is shifting toward buyers amid increased new construction, and the Mountain West and West are seeing meaningful improvements in buyer leverage.
• Foreclosure filings increased 18% year over year in April 2026 but remain exceptionally low at just 0.26% of all housing units nationally, compared with 2.23% at the height of the 2008 housing crisis.
• Homeowner equity, averaging approximately $295,000 nationally, remains the defining structural difference between today’s market and the previous housing downturn.
• A historic, multi-decade transfer of housing wealth is underway. Baby Boomers own approximately 40% of U.S. residential real estate, representing an estimated $18 trillion to $20 trillion in housing wealth that will gradually transfer over the next 15 to 20 years.
• For most American households, homeownership remains the single most effective wealth-building tool, accounting for 60% to 70% of net worth for middle-income families. This reinforces the importance of managing that asset strategically, whether through renovation, adding an accessory dwelling unit, or maintaining long-term ownership.

“This mid-year update is exactly why we committed to a twice-a-year cadence,” said Gretchen Rosenberg, HSoA Executive Liaison for Industry Affairs and Kentwood Real Estate CEO. “The market shifted meaningfully between January and June, and agents and consumers deserve a report that reflects what’s happening right now, not six months ago.”

“Every uncertain market produces its own reasons for inaction,” concluded Kelly. “The buyers and sellers who succeed in 2026 will be the ones who rely on data and professional guidance, not on nostalgia for a market that no longer exists.”

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